How’s the Market?

We’re getting close to the end of the fall market. The flow of new listings coming on the market has already started to slow. It’ll slow down even further as the holidays get closer. It seems like just yesterday the summer market was ending and we were wondering what the fall market would bring. It’s always a bit of a mystery because you never how much, or if, the fall market will pick up from where the summer market left off. So let’s take a look at what we’ve seen in central Toronto this fall:

  • Demand is still strong. There’s no doubt about that. And supply is still weak. There’s no doubt about that either. Consequently, the fall market has been pretty strong. The average sale price in October 2018 was approximately 9% higher than the average sale price in October 2017 and 14% higher than it was in January 2018. Those are pretty significant increases.
  • I felt the fall market wasn’t quite as hot as the spring market. Homes didn’t seem to be selling as quickly or receiving as many offers as they did in the spring. And sale prices didn’t seem to be as much above list price as they were in the spring either. Buyers were more selective – in many instances, they weren’t as willing to pay the list price and often wanted to negotiate to try to get a good deal. That’s not to say there weren’t situations in which a large number of offers resulted in an extremely high sale price, but there seemed to be fewer of those in the fall than in the spring.
  • Check out the statistics in the first chart below, keeping in mind statistics can be manipulated to tell anything you want them to tell. Usually, the highest average price of the year comes in one of the spring market months of April, May or June. This year, so far, the highest average price came in…..October. That doesn’t often happen. But at the same time, homes took longer to sell in October than in the spring and sale prices were relatively lower compared to list prices in October than in the spring. Go figure. One simple explanation for this is that there might have been more high priced homes that sold in the October than in the spring and high priced homes increase the average price and also take longer to sell and sell for a smaller percentage of list price than lower priced homes.
  • One general comment I have is that the market seemed somewhat inconsistent or spotty. Some homes which I expected to sell quickly and for good prices took a little time to sell and didn’t sell for as much as other similar homes. There was no rhyme or reason for it; it just happened. I think that comes with buyers basing their decisions on emotions more and more. If a buyer falls in love with a house, it sells quickly for a big price. If the right buyer isn’t in the right price at the right time, a home can take longer to sell and will often sell for a lower price. This isn’t very logical, especially when we’re talking about the largest investment people usually make, but that’s reality these days.

Going forward, I expect to see fewer new listings and lower average prices in the next few months, which is normal for this time of year. That doesn’t mean there won’t still be great homes coming to market or there won’t be multiple offers generating high prices if you’re in the market to buy, or that there won’t be buyers looking to buy your home if you choose to list it, but the market will be slower on average. I expect the spring market to build on what we’ve been seeing, unless some unforeseen event happens which curbs demand. And in this day and age, you never know what can happen!

Central Toronto – Market Overview

  Average Price % of List # of Sales Total Listings # of New Listings Average Days on Market
Oct ’17 $901,180 99% 1,373 2,717 2,418 20
Nov ’17 $910,508 99% 1,446 2,599 2,332 20
Dec ’17 $827,033 98% 944 1,759 994 24
Jan ’18 $857,361 99% 746 1,719 1,419 26
Feb ’18 $892,378 100% 982 1,994 1,748 22
Mar ’18 $883,297 100% 1,386 2,125 2,217 17
Apr ’18 $949,084 101% 1,479 2,387 2,611 15
May ’18 $960,558 101% 1,555 2,965 3,189 16
Jun ’18 $966,088 100% 1,498 2,913 2,552 16
Jul ’18 $931,472 99% 1,240 2,778 2,215 20
Aug ’18 $888,683 98% 1,156 2,428 1,843 25
Sep ’18 $963,448 100% 1,185 2,928 2,652 22
Oct ’18 $980,698 99% 1,432 2,843 2,576 19

 

Prices – John Wanless and Bedford Park Public School Neighbourhoods

There are five typical home styles in the neighbourhood north of Lawrence, east of Avenue Road, west of Mount Pleasant Road and south of Old Orchard Grove and Snowdon Avenue. Each typical home style is shown on the chart below. Please remember that factors such as house size, lot size and dimensions, condition and location, amongst others, affect selling prices.

Type of Home  No. of Sales Price Range  Ave. Price Date
  • 2 Bedroom
  • Bungalow
  • Mutual driveway
3 $1,325,000 – $1,530,000 $1,431,000 Jan ’18 – Oct ’18
  • 3 Bedroom
  • Semi-detached
  • No family room
27 $925,000 – $1,530,000 $1,218,750 Jan ’18 – Oct ’18
  • 3 Bedroom
  • 2 Storey Detached
  • No family room
15 $1,300,000 – $1,706,000 $1,541,250 Jan ’18 – Oct ’18
  • 3 Bedroom
  • 2 Storey Detached
  • Family Room
10 $1,600,000 – $1,750,000 $1,672,250 Jan ’18 – Oct ’18
  • Newer Construction
13 $2,310,000 – $2,815,000 $2,591,000 Jan ’18 – Oct ’18

 

Prices – John Ross Robertson, Lytton Park, Lawrence Park and Cricket Club Areas

JOHN ROSS ROBERTSON – Chudleigh Ave., Cheritan Ave., Chatsworth Dr., Glenview Ave., Glengrove Ave. W., Glencairn Ave.

LYTTON PARK – east and west of Avenue Road: Alexandra Blvd., Lytton Blvd., Strathallan Blvd., Cortleigh Blvd., Hillhurst Blvd. (almost all of these homes are on 50 foot wide lots)

LAWRENCE PARK – between Yonge St., Bayview Ave., Lawrence Ave. E., and Blythwood Rd. (almost all of these homes are on 50 foot wide lots)

CRICKET CLUB – between Avenue Rd., Yonge St., Wilson Ave., and Brooke Ave.

House Type John Ross Robertson  Lytton Park  Lawrence Park  Cricket Club 
  • 30 foot lot
  • 2 storey
  • 3 bedrooms
  • Private Drive
$2,000,000 – $2,500,000 Not found in this area  Not found in this area  $1,800,000 – $2,400,000
  • 30 or 40 foot lots
  • 4 bedrooms
  • Private Drive
 $2,000,000 – $2,800,000  Not found in this area  Not found in this area  $2,000,000 – $2,500,000
  • 50 foot lot
  • 4+ bedrooms
  • Private Drive
  • Solid Condition
  • Not Renovated
  • No family room
 $2,800,000 – $3,500,000   $2,600,000 – $3,000,000  $2,800,000 – $3,200,000 $2,400,000 – $2,800,000
  • 50 foot lot
  • 4+ bedrooms
  • Private Drive
  • Renovated
  • Family Room
 $3,000,000+   $2,800,000+   $3,000,000+  $2,600,000+
  • 50 foot lot
  • Land Value
 $2,800,000 – $3,500,000   $2,600,000 – $3,000,000 $2,800,000 – $3,200,000    $2,400,000 – $2,800,000

 

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