How’s the Market?

The spring market is approaching its conclusion, which usually happens around the end of June. Typically, the market will slow down during the summer months of July and August.

If you’ve been listening to the media, you might be under the impression the residential real estate market in central Toronto is in the doldrums. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The market in central Toronto has been very healthy since the beginning of this year and trending upwards.

True, it hasn’t been as hot as it was during the first three months of 2017, but that’s the direction in which it’s moving. The average price in central Toronto was only 6% less in May 2018 than it was in May 2017.  The May 2017 price was bolstered by the run up earlier in the year. I suspect the June 2018 price will be even closer to the June 2017 price.

There are still way more buyers than sellers. Homes with broad market appeal that are well priced are receiving multiple offers and selling for more than their list prices. (Not all, but many.) There was no burst bubble. There is no real estate recession in central Toronto.

What I’m seeing is some confusion or uncertainty in some aspects of the market. The media is telling buyers the market is down, but at the same time these buyers are finding themselves in bidding wars and seeing their dream homes sell for well above their list prices. They want to believe what they’re seeing with their own eyes, but they’re a little worried the media might turn out to be right and don’t want to find they’ve overpaid. I’ve said this many times before – don’t believe what you read and hear from the media. The media reports on the market in general, not the market in central Toronto, and the media reports what will sell.

There’s another factor at play here, too, creating more uncertainty. There weren’t a lot of sales during the second half of last year and the first few months of this year. This makes it difficult to find comparable sales to estimate the value of many properties. Properties with broad appeal are usually easier to value because there are more of them. Buyers are more comfortable making offers on these properties because they’re less concerned about overpaying. Properties that are more difficult to value because of the lack of comparable sales are taking longer to sell because buyers are being more careful and moving more slowly for fear of making a mistake and overpaying.

I expect prices to continue their upward trend, not with broad leaps but with small steps. But first I expect the market to slow down during the summer as it always does. And I expect the media to report the market is in the doldrums. Whether you choose to believe this or not is up to you.

Central Toronto – Market Overview

  Average Price % of List # of Sales Total Listings # of New Listings Average Days on Market
May ’17 $1,022,740 105% 1,958 2,889 4,037 12
Jun ’17 $926,177 100% 1,562 2,878 2,932 15
Jul ’17 $820,906 98% 1,144 2,718 2,153 20
Aug ’17 $798,797 99% 1,257 2,263 1,740 24
Sep ’17 $906,357 99% 1,250 2,711 2,625 22
Oct ’17 $901,180 99% 1,373 2,717 2,418 20
Nov ’17 $910,508 99% 1,446 2,599 2,332 20
Dec ’17 $827,033 98% 944 1,759 994 24
Jan ’18 $857,361 99% 746 1,719 1,419 26
Feb ’18 $892,378 100% 982 1,994 1,748 22
Mar ’18 $883,297 100% 1,386 2,125 2,217 17
Apr ’18 $949,084 101% 1,479 2,387 2,611 15
May ’18 $960,558 101% 1,555 2,965 3,189 16

 

Prices – John Wanless and Bedford Park Public School Neighbourhoods

There are five typical home styles in the neighbourhood north of Lawrence, east of Avenue Road, west of Mount Pleasant Road and south of Old Orchard Grove and Snowdon Avenue. Each typical home style is shown on the chart below. Please remember that factors such as house size, lot size and dimensions, condition and location, amongst others, affect selling prices.

Type of Home  No. of Sales Price Range  Ave. Price Date
  • 2 Bedroom
  • Bungalow
  • Mutual driveway
1 $1,438,000 $1,438,000 Jan ’18 – May ’18
  • 3 Bedroom
  • Semi-detached
  • No family room
10 $995,000 – $1,519,633 $1,228,500 Jan ’18 – May ’18
  • 3 Bedroom
  • 2 Storey Detached
  • No family room
8 $1,450,000 – $1,706,000 $1,612,000 Jan ’18 – May ’18
  • 3 Bedroom
  • 2 Storey Detached
  • Family Room
6 $1,605,000 – $1,720,000 $1,662,250 Jan ’18 – May ’18
  • Newer Construction
8 $2,310,000 – $2,750,000 $2,513,750 Jan ’18 – May ’18

 

Prices – John Ross Robertson, Lytton Park, Lawrence Park and Cricket Club Areas

JOHN ROSS ROBERTSON – Chudleigh Ave., Cheritan Ave., Chatsworth Dr., Glenview Ave., Glengrove Ave. W., Glencairn Ave.

LYTTON PARK – east and west of Avenue Road: Alexandra Blvd., Lytton Blvd., Strathallan Blvd., Cortleigh Blvd., Hillhurst Blvd. (almost all of these homes are on 50 foot wide lots)

LAWRENCE PARK – between Yonge St., Bayview Ave., Lawrence Ave. E., and Blythwood Rd. (almost all of these homes are on 50 foot wide lots)

CRICKET CLUB – between Avenue Rd., Yonge St., Wilson Ave., and Brooke Ave.

House Type John Ross Robertson  Lytton Park  Lawrence Park  Cricket Club 
  • 30 foot lot
  • 2 storey
  • 3 bedrooms
  • Private Drive
$2,000,000 – $2,500,000 Not found in this area  Not found in this area  $1,800,000 – $2,400,000
  • 30 or 40 foot lots
  • 4 bedrooms
  • Private Drive
 $2,000,000 – $2,800,000  Not found in this area  Not found in this area  $2,000,000 – $2,500,000
  • 50 foot lot
  • 4+ bedrooms
  • Private Drive
  • Solid Condition
  • Not Renovated
  • No family room
 $2,800,000 – $3,500,000   $2,600,000 – $3,000,000  $2,800,000 – $3,200,000 $2,400,000 – $2,800,000
  • 50 foot lot
  • 4+ bedrooms
  • Private Drive
  • Renovated
  • Family Room
 $3,000,000+   $2,800,000+   $3,000,000+  $2,600,000+
  • 50 foot lot
  • Land Value
 $2,800,000 – $3,500,000   $2,600,000 – $3,000,000 $2,800,000 – $3,200,000    $2,400,000 – $2,800,000

 

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